【EUR/USD】1-Hour Chart Analysis - April 28, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis – Breaks Below 1.1350, Downward Risk Expands Rapidly

Overview (April 28, 2025)

EUR/USD is currently at 1.1349, breaking below the psychological level of 1.1350. Recent price action has failed to maintain the support zone and is moving weakly, with strong selling pressure. Technical indicators such as ADX (trend strength), DMI (directional movement index), and moving averages (MA) suggest that a downward trend is strengthening. If 1.1340 is clearly broken, the next targets for the downside would likely be 1.1300–1.1280. However, there is also the potential for a short-term rebound, and a selling strategy during the rebound could be effective.

Key Point 1: Selling Pressure Continues with Break Below Moving Averages

Currently, EUR/USD is trading below both the 50-hour moving average (blue line) and the 200-hour moving average (red line), entering a typical bearish pattern. Particularly, the 50MA is acting as resistance, and any attempts at higher prices are being capped, indicating increasing selling pressure. Additionally, the candlestick bodies are becoming smaller, indicating that the energy in the market is shifting towards the sellers. If the support at 1.1340 is broken, the next target could be 1.1300.

Key Point 2: ADX and DMI Indicate Pre-Trend Formation

At the bottom of the chart, the ADX (yellow line) is slowly rising and is currently around 0.15. Generally, when the ADX surpasses 0.20, a clear trend is considered to be in formation, so we are in the "early stage" of trend formation. Additionally, the DMI shows that -DI (red line) has crossed above +DI (green line), indicating growing strength for the sell side. This combination suggests the confirmation of a downward trend in the future, and it is important to remain responsive to the break of 1.1340.

Key Point 3: Volume Increase Confirms Strong Selling Pressure

Volume has been rising recently, further confirming the strength of selling pressure during the decline. Typically, a decline accompanied by volume increases the reliability of the trend, so significant caution is necessary for this drop. In particular, if the volume increases and 1.1340 breaks, the speed of the decline could accelerate, making a short-term sell entry increasingly valuable.

Image source: cTrader platform

Future Outlook and Trading Strategy

EUR/USD is at a critical point, and the future direction will depend on the following key levels:

• Will the 1.1340 support level hold? If this level is broken, the risk of a fall towards 1.1300–1.1280 will sharply increase.
• Resistance at 1.1360–1.1370 A short-term rebound is likely to be rejected at this zone, and selling pressure may re-emerge.
• Will ADX surpass 0.20? If it does, a downward trend will be confirmed, and the selling position will become more favorable.

Trade Scenarios

Bearish Scenario (Downward Target)
Entry: After confirming a break below 1.1340, enter a short position
Take Profit: 1.1300–1.1280
Stop Loss: Above 1.1370

Bullish Scenario (Short-Term Rebound)
Entry: After confirming a rebound near 1.1340, enter a short-term long position
Take Profit: Around 1.1370
Stop Loss: Below 1.1330

Summary:

EUR/USD is currently in a market environment dominated by selling, with the most effective strategy being to sell on any rebound. All technical indicators – moving averages, ADX, DMI, volume – point towards a potential downward trend. A trade focusing on downward risks is required, and careful attention should be paid to the 1.1340 support level.

Disclaimer:

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an endorsement to buy or sell a particular financial product. All trading decisions should be made at your own discretion and risk.
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