On June 6, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) rebounded after a sharp decline lasting several hours, recovering from below $100,000 and now trading around $103,000. This rebound was accompanied by a surge in volume, suggesting a possible end to short-term panic selling. In this analysis, we will use technical analysis to evaluate moving averages, MACD, ADX, and volume to assess the upcoming trends.
On the chart, the blue 50SMA and red 200SMA are located slightly above the current price range and are both trending downward. This reflects the recent market drop, and a sustained rebound would require a clear breakout above these lines. In particular, as the two moving averages are converging, avoiding a “death cross” here is key to a bullish scenario.
Moving averages are widely used indicators for visualizing trends and carry significant meaning during consolidation or reversal phases.
The MACD shows a crossover with the signal line, and both lines are starting to slope upward. The histogram is also showing signs of turning positive from the negative zone, indicating a short-term improvement in momentum.
This behavior suggests the “bottoming rebound” may continue. If the MACD clearly breaks above the zero line, it could mark the beginning of a full-scale upward wave. However, caution is still warranted due to the lingering effects of previous strong selling pressure.
The ADX (Average Directional Index) is currently in the mid-30s, suggesting the previous strong downtrend is tapering off. In conditions where the ADX indicator is above 25, the market is considered directional. However, this pause may signal a potential turning point, and traders should remain alert for the next trend development phase.
A spike in volume during a sharp decline often marks the peak of panic selling. A subsequent price rise with lower volume indicates short-term buying or short-covering activity, raising the question, “Is this rebound genuine?”
This pattern of “volume surge during drop + rebound on lower volume” is typical of a temporary technical rebound, and another volume increase is needed for a confirmed breakout.
| Level | Price | Description / Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term Resistance | $104,300 | Price zone where 50SMA and 200SMA converge, recent high |
| Next Target | $105,800 | Previous high and significant psychological resistance |
| Short-Term Support | $101,200 | Pullback level before rebound, high wick area |
| Mid-Term Support | $99,800 | Psychological level (below $100,000), high volume zone |
At this point, BTC/USD appears to be in a rebound phase from a bottom, and whether it can break out of the 103,000–104,300 range will be key. Traders should consider the following two scenarios when forming strategies:
The 1-hour BTC/USD chart shows signs of a short-term bottom rebound, with improvements in MACD and ADX. However, strong resistance from moving averages remains a concern. A confirmed breakout will require supporting volume, and short-term traders should manage positions flexibly while monitoring support/resistance reactions.
As momentum improves and technical indicators align, the 103,000 level becomes a critical battleground.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please ensure you conduct your own analysis and manage risks accordingly.
BTC/USD fell below 100,000 in a sharp drop but has since rebounded to around 103,000. This article analyzes the potential continuation of the rebound using technical indicators such as MACD and ADX, and highlights key resistance levels.
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