BTC/USD Enters Danger Zone! What Does the Chart Reveal About the ‘Chain of Declines’?

BTC/USD Analysis – Downtrend Accelerates After Support Break, Psychological Level of $100,000 in Focus

Overview (May 13, 2025)

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently trading around $101,778, having broken below a key support level on the 1-hour chart. Although it previously rebounded to near $105,000, upward momentum weakened, and the price began forming lower highs and lower lows—indicative of a bearish trend. This latest decline suggests a short-term trend reversal, and technical indicators point to heightened downside risk.

Key factors to note include shrinking candle bodies, decreased volatility, and a spike in volume immediately following the support break. These elements suggest that selling pressure is gaining dominance. Whether BTC can hold the psychological $100,000 level will be critical in determining the next direction.

Key Point 1: 50MA Break and Candlestick Pattern Shift

On the 1-hour chart, the 50-period moving average (blue) has transitioned from an upward slope to flat and now tilting downward. This indicates slowing momentum and a possible end to the previous uptrend. Recently, the 50MA has acted as resistance, capping any attempted rebounds.

The candlestick structure is also telling. Just before the decline, candles began showing smaller bodies and longer lower wicks, indicating weakening bullish power. A large bearish candle confirmed selling dominance—typical signs of a trend reversal and bearish sentiment.

Key Point 2: ADX and DMI Indicate Emerging Bearish Trend

Technical indicators displayed at the bottom—ADX (Average Directional Index) and DMI (Directional Movement Index)—confirm the early stages of a trend. The ADX (yellow line) is still below 0.20 but is gradually rising from the 0.15 level, suggesting a nascent trend.

Meanwhile, in the DMI, the -DI (red) is clearly above the +DI (green), indicating that sellers are leading the current trend. This combination reflects a market environment where “sell-the-rally” strategies are likely to outperform, with any bounce likely to be limited.

Key Point 3: Volume Surge During Breakout

Volume analysis shows a notable spike as BTC broke below the $101,800 support. A support break accompanied by volume adds credibility to the move and signals a real influx of selling pressure.

The abrupt volume increase during a typically quiet trading hour also suggests potential algorithmic or institutional selling. If similar patterns reoccur, a break below $100,000 could trigger further sharp declines, necessitating close monitoring of price action.

※Image source: cTrader platform

Outlook and Trading Strategy

BTC/USD is approaching an inflection point based on the following technical scenarios:

• Break below $101,000: Could lead to further downside toward $100,000–$98,500.
• Reactions around $102,800–$103,500: Any bounce in this zone may face renewed selling pressure.
• ADX above 0.20: If breached, it would confirm a strong downtrend, strengthening the case for short positions.

Example Trade Scenarios

Bearish Scenario (Trend Following)
Entry: Short position after a confirmed break below $101,000
Take-Profit Targets: Partial profits at $100,000 → $98,500
Stop-Loss: Exit above $103,000

Bullish Scenario (Counter-Trend Rebound)
Entry: Enter short-term long only after clear bullish signals near $101,000
Take-Profit Target: $102,800–$103,500 range
Stop-Loss: Exit if price clearly falls below $100,500

Conclusion:

BTC/USD is currently in a strongly bearish environment from both technical and fundamental perspectives. The break below the 50-hour MA, rising ADX, bearish DMI structure, and increased volume all signal selling pressure.

The $100,000 psychological and technical level will be the central focus going forward. Traders should adopt risk-managed, trend-following strategies with an emphasis on short positions.

Disclaimer:

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. All trading decisions are your responsibility.
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