The upcoming week will be shaped by central bank speeches and economic data, influencing the global forex market.

Highlights

• The US dollar's demand will be impacted by the release of retail sales data and statements from Federal Reserve Chair Powell.

• Data on UK employment, inflation, and retail sales could lead to speculation about a potential rate hike by the Bank of England.

• China's GDP figures, set to be revealed on Wednesday, will play a significant role in shaping market risk sentiment.

For the Dollar:

The week kicks off with the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. While the US manufacturing sector's contribution to the economy is limited, investors remain wary due to concerns about the overall economic environment. On Tuesday, retail sales figures for September will play a crucial role. Better-than-expected numbers may increase speculation about a Fed rate hike. Thursday will witness the focus on initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Tight labor market conditions are likely to support wage growth and consumer spending, which could pose challenges for the Fed. Additional economic indicators such as industrial production and housing sector numbers are expected, although their impact on sentiment towards Fed monetary policy is likely to be limited. Investors will also watch for Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech on Friday, as well as statements from FOMC members Harker, Williams, and Bowman throughout the week.

For the EUR:

The week will start with trade data for the Eurozone, which will influence the EUR/USD. Investors will be sensitive to any weaker-than-expected trade data amid concerns of a prolonged recession in the euro area. ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone are anticipated to garner investor interest on Tuesday. Wednesday will bring Eurozone inflation figures for September, potentially impacting the ECB's interest rate decisions. ECB commentary and speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde and other board members will also play a role in shaping monetary policy sentiment and influencing the buyer appetite for the EUR/USD.

For the Pound:

The UK is poised for a significant week. Tuesday will see investor attention on UK average earnings, claimant counts, and unemployment figures. A rise in wage growth could fuel consumption and inflationary pressures. The UK CPI Report, to be released on Wednesday, will also influence the market's expectations regarding the Bank of England's monetary policy. The week will conclude with UK retail sales figures. Additionally, speeches from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill and Monetary Policy Committee Member Swati Dhingra will provide insight into interest rate expectations.

For the Loonie:

Canadian inflation figures for September will be closely monitored on Tuesday, with higher inflation potentially boosting demand for the Loonie. Retail sales figures on Friday will also be considered as they could impact bets on a Bank of Canada rate hike. Furthermore, the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey will influence buyer appetite for the Loonie.

Out of Asia:

For the Aussie Dollar: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on Tuesday will be watched closely, especially in the wake of recent inflation figures. Employment figures on Thursday will contribute to market sentiment, with tight labor market conditions potentially supporting speculation about an RBA interest rate hike.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

Third-quarter inflation figures on Tuesday will bring the Kiwi Dollar into focus. There will be interest in the RBNZ's stance on monetary policy tightening. Recent RBNZ commentary has suggested the possibility of the RBNZ keeping interest rates at higher levels for longer, potentially supporting appetite for the Kiwi dollar.

For the Japanese Yen:

September's consumer inflation figures will impact trends in the Japanese Yen. Consideration of the prerequisites for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to move away from negative rates is crucial. Industrial production and trade data will also be significant, potentially reflecting a weak demand environment and influencing the BoJ's policy stance.

Out of China:

The focus will be on various aspects of the Chinese economy, including third-quarter GDP figures, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment data. Stimulus plans may offset the impact of weaker-than-expected GDP numbers. Finally, the PBoC's decision on loan prime rates will be closely observed on Friday, with expectations leaning towards unchanged rates given the potential for upcoming stimulus measures.