The German Manufacturing PMI Climbs, While the Services Sector Declines

• The Services PMI reaches its lowest point in five months, indicating a downturn.
• The Manufacturing PMI shows improvement, but it still remains in a state of contraction.
• The service sector is optimistic, while the manufacturing sector is encountering external challenges.  

German Private Sector Analysis: Early 2024

Downturn in Service Sector

The services sector, a critical component of the economy, saw a significant decline at the beginning of the year. The HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index dropped to a five-month low of 47.6. This decrease reflects customer hesitancy amid high financing costs and geopolitical uncertainty, resulting in reduced new business inflows.

Complex Recovery in Manufacturing Sector

Manufacturing, a pivotal pillar of the German economy, demonstrates indications of a nuanced recovery. The HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index increased to 46.0, reaching an eight-month peak, indicating a slowdown in the rate of contraction. However, the overall Manufacturing PMI reached 45.4, marking an 11-month high, signifying a gradual improvement in the sector’s health. Nevertheless, the sector remains in a recessionary phase, impacted by global supply chain disruptions, particularly events in the Red Sea.

Employment and Inflation Trends

Employment conditions varied across sectors. The service sector maintained relatively consistent employment levels, while manufacturing experienced more noticeable job reductions. In terms of inflation, service sector businesses encountered heightened cost pressures, mainly from wage demands, leading to an upsurge in service prices. Conversely, manufacturing prices continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace.

Insight from Chief Economist

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, highlights the sluggish start for Germany’s economy in 2024, with notable effects from supply chain disruptions and persistent inflation in the service sector. The ongoing recession is anticipated to persist into the current quarter, influenced by global events and internal economic dynamics.

Near-Term Market Outlook

In the immediate future, the German private sector’s outlook is cautiously varied. The services sector displays a degree of confidence, possibly bolstered by its ability to pass increased costs on to consumers. However, the manufacturing sector, despite displaying signs of recovery, continues to be hindered by external challenges such as supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures.

This leads to a restrained sense of optimism within the sector. Overall, the economic landscape in early 2024 depicts a scenario of gradual, sector-specific recovery against a backdrop of persistent challenges, with the resilience in services sector employment and cautious optimism contrasting with the cautious recovery and ongoing obstacles faced by the manufacturing sector.