The decline in retail sales in the Eurozone in July was primarily driven by a drop in auto fuel sales.

According to estimates from Eurostat, the volume of retail sales in the euro area experienced a decline of 0.2% in July 2023. This figure is an improvement compared to June but falls short of the forecasted expectations.

Highlights

• There was a 0.2% drop in retail volume in the euro area during the month of July.
• Sales of automotive fuels decrease, whereas non-food items demonstrate an increase in sales.
• Spain shows the highest growth among the countries, while Slovenia faces a steep decline.

Euro Area Retail Trade Volume Decline

In July 2023, retail trade volume in the euro area and EU saw a slight decline of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, contrasting the 0.2% increase observed in June 2023. These estimates were provided by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Comparing July 2023 to the same month in 2022, retail sales fell by 1.0% in the euro area and 1.2% in the entire EU.

Monthly Retail Sector Breakdown

During July 2023, there was a 1.2% decrease in the retail volume of automotive fuels in the euro area. However, the volume of food, drinks, and tobacco showed a growth of 0.4%, while non-food products experienced a 0.5% increase. Similarly, the EU witnessed a 1.1% reduction in the retail volume of automotive fuels, but saw a 0.2% growth in food, drinks, and tobacco, and a 0.6% increase in non-food items. Among Member States, Denmark and Ireland had the highest monthly decreases at -2.3%, while Portugal (+1.1%), Sweden (+1.0%), and Cyprus (+0.8%) demonstrated notable growth.

Yearly Retail Sector Analysis

When comparing July 2023 to July 2022, the euro area observed a 3.4% decrease in the retail volume of automotive fuels and a 2.2% dip in food, drinks, and tobacco. However, non-food products showed a positive growth of 1.1%. For the broader EU, retail trade volume decreased by 3.9% for automotive fuels and 2.4% for food and beverages, but non-food products saw a modest improvement of 0.7%. Slovenia experienced the most significant yearly volume decrease, with a decline of 16.3%, while Spain led the way in growth with an impressive 8.6% increase.

Short-Term Forecast

Considering the current landscape, the retail trade environment appears to be cautiously bearish. Mixed results across different sectors and varying performances among Member States introduce the potential for volatility in the near term. Traders and stakeholders are advised to stay updated on evolving trends and regional differences.