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Indications of Enhanced Demand Environment from China's Trade and Inflation Figures

Indications of Enhanced Demand Environment from China's Trade and Inflation Figures

Investors showed interest in China's trade data, as exports increased, but there was little enthusiasm for imports, creating uncertainty in the near future.

Highlights

  • The inflation numbers from China suggest a potential change in demand.
  • In December, China experienced a surge in exports; however, imports indicated a subdued demand outlook.
  • Later today, it is important to take into account the US producer prices and discussions from the Federal Reserve.  

On Friday, investors were intrigued by the inflation and trade data coming out of China.

China's Trade Surplus Expands, Exceeding Economist Predictions

China's trade surplus in US dollars grew from $68.39 billion to $75.34 billion in December, surpassing economists' forecast of a $74.75 billion surplus. Notably, exports rose by 2.3% year-over-year, compared to a 0.5% increase in November, surpassing economists' projected 1.7% growth. Meanwhile, imports, which had declined by 0.6% in November, saw a 0.2% increase, slightly below economists' anticipated 0.3% rise. This latest trade data corresponds with earlier inflation figures released in the Friday session.  

Positive Signs in China's Inflation Data Point Towards Improved Demand

Recent inflation data released during the Friday session indicates a positive trend. Consumer prices rose by 0.1% in December, following a 0.5% decrease in November, slightly below economists' projected 0.2% increase. On a year-over-year basis, consumer prices decreased by 0.3%, compared to a 0.5% decline in November, slightly under economists' anticipated 0.4% decrease.

Similarly, producer prices indicated a modestly improving demand environment. Year-over-year, producer prices fell by 2.7% in December, a slight improvement from the 3.0% decline in November, in line with economists' forecast of a 2.6% decrease in December. 

Response of AUD/USD to Chinese Economic Data

Prior to the release of the statistics, the AUD/USD dropped to $0.66819 and then climbed to $0.67010.

Following the release of China's economic figures, the Australian dollar declined to $0.66973, then recovered, reaching a peak of $0.67139.

By Friday, the Australian dollar had gained 0.37%, settling at $0.67118.

AUD/USD up on China inflation and trade data.

120124 AUDUSD 30 Minute Chart

 

Attention on U.S. Producer Prices and Federal Reserve's Inflation Outlook

This Friday, attention turns to U.S. producer prices, deemed by economists as precursors to consumer inflation. Increasing producer prices might indicate a demand surge. As producers transfer heightened costs to consumers, this can impact perceptions regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate objectives.

Projections suggest a 1.3% annual rise in producer prices for December. This follows a 0.9% increase observed in November.

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