Germany: The rigorous enforcement of debt-brake encourages discipline, but there is still a delay of EUR 300 billion in investments.

Germany’s constitutional court ruling on November 15, 2023, regarding the reallocation of funds from Covid-19 response to the Climate and Transformation Fund, underscores the country's commitment to fiscal discipline. However, it also restricts the government's flexibility in reallocating borrowed funds over several years, reinforcing the constitutionally anchored debt brake rule. The ruling poses challenges for the coalition government in balancing current spending commitments with funding Germany’s energy transition and meeting EU climate goals. The near-term budgetary impact is manageable but could create downside risks to future spending plans and Germany's growth outlook. The ruling may also affect public investments at the federal and state levels, potentially dampening the investment outlook. Discussions around reforming the debt brake rule and its impact on domestic and European fiscal rules are likely to ensue, with implications for the forthcoming EU fiscal rules negotiations. Despite the fiscal space available, policymakers will need to focus on enhancing Germany's future competitiveness to avoid long-term fiscal imbalances.