ADP Records Modest Employment Expansion and Wage Hike in November.

 In November, the private sector in the U.S. saw an addition of 103,000 jobs, which was below the expected 131,000 jobs.  

Highlights

• The United States added 103,000 jobs, falling short of expectations.
• Wage growth decelerates, revealing regional disparities in employment.
• Most of the job growth is driven by medium-sized firms.

 In November 2023, the U.S. private sector saw moderate job growth with the addition of 103,000 new positions, according to the ADP National Employment Report™. This number fell short of the anticipated 131,000 jobs, signaling a slight slowdown in hiring. The report, a collaboration between the ADP Research Institute® and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, also revealed a significant 5.6% year-over-year increase in annual pay, indicating a continued upward trend in wages.

Job growth varied across sectors and regions. The service-providing sector experienced the highest job gains, mainly in trade/transportation/utilities and education/health services, while leisure/hospitality and professional/business services saw declines. The goods-producing sector also saw a decrease, particularly in manufacturing and construction, despite a slight increase in natural resources/mining.

Regionally, the Northeast and South showed substantial job additions, particularly in the Middle Atlantic and West South Central subregions. In contrast, the Midwest and West saw minimal growth or slight declines, highlighting regional disparities.

Insights into pay revealed that job-stayers experienced a 5.6% pay increase, the slowest since September 2021, while job-changers saw an 8.3% gain, the smallest rise since June 2021. This deceleration in pay growth suggests a cooling labor market. Construction workers in the goods-producing sector and employees in leisure/hospitality and education/health services in the service-providing sector saw notable pay increases.

The data also showed variations based on establishment size, with medium-sized establishments (50-249 employees) driving the most job growth, while small and large establishments exhibited modest increases.

In the short term, the job market reflects cautious optimism, with moderate job growth and steady wage increases. While lower-than-expected job additions and slowing wage growth indicate a tempered labor market, the overall rise in employment and pay suggests underlying resilience. The market is attentive to potential shifts in employment patterns and wage trends in the coming months, especially concerning regional and sectoral differences.